The Causes and Events behind the Collapse of the Asad regime in Syria

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched the attack in northern Syria under the title “Deterrence of Aggression” on 27/11/2024, this was followed by an attack by the Syrian National Army under the title “Dawn of Freedom” on 30/11/2024. Aleppo was taken over, in addition to complete control over all areas of Idlib, then Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. All of this occurred within ten days. This article looks at the causes and actors behind the events in Syria.

The Factions that Launched the Attack

According to the BBC, 28/11/2024, the factions which participated in the attack are the “Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room,” which is led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), and includes the National Liberation Front (NLF) supported by Turkey, the Jaysh Al-Izza group, as well as the Syrian National Army (SNA), which represents an alliance of opposition factions supported by Turkey, and is not involved in the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room.

Therefore, most of the factions participating in the attack are factions affiliated with Turkey and loyal to it, as the National Army is its creation, and HTS is under Turkey’s guidance ; the rapprochement between the organization and Turkey is clearly visible.

Reasons for the Move on Damascus

These moves, which were initially more like a disciplinary message to Bashar because he did not respond to Erdogan’s requests, as he asked Russian President Putin to work on advancing the normalization of talks between Ankara and Damascus, and for Bashar to accept the invitation which Erdogan extended to him to meet him(Reuters, 25/10/2024)].

However, Bashar did not respond, but instead asked for the withdrawal of Turkish forces, set conditions and started to procrastinate. Lavrov, the Russian mediator, confirmed this and told the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on 1/11/2024 that Bashar is requesting the withdrawal of Turkish forces and, “…that the main obstacle to this is the presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria.” This angered Erdogan who as a result gave the green light to the organization and the National Army to move as the Associated Press revealed that, “Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive.” (AFP; Deutsche Welle, 30/11/2024).

Reasons for the Rapid Advance

Although this movement was initially to liberate the de-escalation zones around Idlib, driven by Bashar’s failure to respond to Turkiye’s offers to negotiate a political solution between him and the opposition, large sectors of the people who are suffering from Bashar’s injustice took advantage of that and set out on all fronts. They did not stop at what was originally planned in the de-escalation zones around Idlib, but rather went beyond that in various regions of Syria. Because the Syrian army was also suffering from Bashar’s injustice and had no conviction in defending him, hence, its withdrawals continued. Then, the mobile sectors of the people entered Aleppo, Hama, then Homs, and finally the movements of the Syrian people reached Damascus. All of this happened rapidly in ten days since the movements began on 27/11/2024.

The Positions of regional and international parties:

1 Iran and Russia: They were shocked by what was happening. So, Russia strengthened security at the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base, and the two countries contacted each other, which according to Anadolu Agency, the “Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi discussed developments in Syria with his Russian counterpart Lavrov,” ( 30/11/2024).

Following this attack, Iran moved diplomatically to stop it and resolve the problems with Turkiye, so its Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Ankara on 2/12/2024, and met with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan; who spoke with his American counterpart Blinken and said: “The political process between the regime and the opposition must lead to positive results for the sake of peace and calm in Syria”  (Anadolu Agency, 1/12/2024)].

2- As for Turkiye: It wanted a political solution with Bashar through peaceful negotiations, as did America, but Bashar thought that he could gain advantages by not responding quickly, so his answers to Erdogan’s offers were delayed, thinking that this would not anger America. It seems that Erdogan was annoyed by this, so he took America’s approval to teach Bashar a lesson, so the negotiated solution would be in a combative atmosphere that appeared to be a victory for Erdogan over Bashar. Accordingly, he pushed the opposition factions to attack, supporting them with the necessary weapons and intelligence information.

a- On 25/10/2024, Erdogan told reporters after meeting Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS Conference in Kazan that he had “asked Russian President Putin to work on advancing normalization talks between Ankara and Damascus and for Bashar to accept the invitation he extended to him to meet.” (Reuters 25/10/2024)].

b- The Russian mediators responded to Erdogan more than once that there are conditions for Bashar al-Assad to meet with him and normalize relations with him, including withdrawing Turkish forces from Syria. Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, confirmed to the Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet on 1/11/2024 that “both Turkey and Syria are showing serious interest in resuming dialogue in order to normalize relations, and that the main obstacle to this is the presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria.” This indicates Bashar’s obstinateness who exploited Erdogan’s deteriorating position on normalization, and also exploited the support of the Arab countries for him, so he realised that America still wanted him because it had not found an alternative to him.

c- When the Turkish regime despaired of a negotiated solution with Bashar under these circumstances, it obtained America’s approval for the negotiated solution to be carried out with a military prelude to pressure Bashar. Therefore, Erdogan started mobilizing the armed factions from 27/11/2024. This is evidenced by the fact that the Turkish regime is the one that allowed them to start pressuring Bashar’s regime, i.e. with a green light from Turkey the “opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence say that Ankara gave the green light for the attack.” (Deutsche Welle, 30/11/2024)].

This was so that Bashar would accept sitting with Erdogan, normalizing relations with Turkey, and reconciling with the opposition. Then reaching the political solution according to American specifications. That is, a “new phase” for Syria, as Erdogan said during a phone call with UN Secretary-General Guterres, stressing that Syria is entering a “new phase that is being managed calmly.” (Arabi21, 5/12/2024).

As for America: It was not surprised by the Syrian opposition attack. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said: “It was no surprise that armed opposition fighters would try to take advantage of the situation…” Al-Arabiya; Al Jazeera Net, 1/12/2024). Moreover, it did not show any concern, as Al Jazeera reported on 1/12/2024 from the White House saying: “We are closely monitoring the situation in Syria and have been in contact over the last 48 hours with regional capitals.”

US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said, “The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254.” (White House, 30/11/2024; RT, 1/12/2024).

Al Jazeera reported on its website on 2/12/2024, “The US State Department issued a statement saying, “The current escalation only underscores the urgent need for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict, in line with UNSCR 2254.” referring to the 2015 UN resolution that approved the peace process in Syria and has not been implemented to date. It stipulates that peace talks in Syria should begin in January 2016.

While it stressed that the Syrian people are the ones who decide the future of the country, it called for the formation of a transitional government and holding elections under UN supervision, demanding an immediate cessation of any attacks against civilians. Al-Hurra published on its website on 4/12/2024 that “Blinken considered that the most important thing at the present time is to push forward a political process based on the UN Security Council resolution, in an attempt to resolve and end the civil war in Syria”. whilst The Khabar News Agency published on its website on 7/12/2024 that the Turkish Foreign Ministry said, “We informed Blinken of the need for the Syrian government to hold a dialogue with the opposition”.

4- As for the Jewish entity: Euro News Arabia reported on 30/11/2024 the following, “The ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, came out last Tuesday evening to announce to the ‘Israelis’ his acceptance of a ceasefire with Hezbollah”. In his speech, Netanyahu did not forget to refer to the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, and said in his speech, “Assad is playing with fire.”

Hours after that speech, the Syrian factions launched a coordinated attack against Assad’s forces in northern Syria, which raised many questions. Netanyahu held a special security meeting on the developments in northern Syria, which is unusual for such a matter, according to ‘Israeli’ media). Then Al Jazeera reported on 1/12/2024 that the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said, “The ‘Israeli’ army prevented an Iranian plane from landing in Syria on suspicion that it was carrying weapons for the Lebanese Hezbollah”, as if the Jewish entity wants to prevent Iran from returning in force to the Syrian arena under the pretext of carrying weapons for the party in Lebanon, and therefore does not want a military focus for Iran or Iran’s party in Syria and in Lebanon.

Concluding Points

1- The party that controlled the start of the attacks towards the de-escalation zones in Syria is Turkey behind which is America.

2- They want from this “to start a credible political process” … “a new phase” … to arrange the new regime in Syria. Below are some statements by American and Turkish officials in this regard:

The spokesman for the US National Security Council, Sean Savett, said: “The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254”. (White House, 30/11/2024; RT,1/12/2024)]. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stressed,, that Syria is entering ‘a new phase’ that is being managed calmly. (Arabi21, 5/12/2024).

3- Although they did not clarify what they meant by the political solution that these attacks would lead to, the reality of the multiplicity of forces now fighting on the fronts could suggest that what America and its followers are arranging is a Syrian coalition regime between these forces that would succeed the regime of the tyrant that has been removed, and in which there would be regions with self-governance similar to the self-governance of the Kurdish region in Iraq.

4- America, which controls the solution, will allow the interests of the Jews to be achieved, as America guaranteed it for them in the ceasefire agreement between the Jews and Lebanon at dawn on 27/11/2024, which is on the same day the military confrontation began in Syria. And to prevent Iran from returning with military momentum to the Syrian arena in support of its party in Lebanon, i.e. cutting off the ground military connection between Iran and its party in Lebanon.

These are the matters that the statements of American and Turkish officials above which indicate the reasons for the launch of the attacks in Syria and the takeover of Damascus.