Beirut Blast Unlikely an Accident

The circumstances of the Beirut blast, starting from the shipment of ammonium nitrate six years ago, then the decision of the owner and crew to abandon the ship and its cargo and dump it in Lebanon, and the failure of the Lebanese authorities to take the necessary safety precautions despite their awareness of the dangers involved from previous experiences in the US and China, leads to the preponderant conclusion – although the investigation is yet to be completed and despite the lack of information – that the blast was deliberately planned and executed, especially as it came amid a host of unfavorable domestic and regional circumstances to Hezbollah, Iran, Syria and the Lebanese government brought by Hezbollah to sidestep the protests and its political demands, which were shrouded with livelihood-driven demands. Moreover, former CIA and other explosives experts commented on CNN (05/08/2020) that on observation, the colour and nature of the blast alluded more to the detonation of military-grade explosives than ammonium nitrate. The official account is also problematic considering the speed at which the Lebanese authorities blamed it on the storage of the fertilizer without any hesitation and investigation. Also, it was the Lebanese security chief who released the information and not the government initially. What puts further doubt that the blast was an accident is when US President Donald Trump initially stated that according to his intelligence and the view of his ” military generals”, this was an attack and not an accident. So who could be behind this?

In this regard both America and Israel have been after Hezbollah’s weapons and the abolition of Iranian influence in Lebanon with the aim of restructuring the regimes surrounding Israel, in order to meet the demands of so called the Deal of the Century, since the Iranian surrogates in Syria, Iraq and Yemen derive their strength from the resistance of Lebanon’s Hezbollah to US pressures. And if Hezbollah continued to dominate the Lebanese government, it would not allow the sectarian system that nurtures its superiority and narrow interests to be tampered with. 

For instance, Hezbollah is averse to resolving the situation of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon since their naturalisation and resettlement as per the stipulations of the Deal of the Century would cause a demographic imbalance in favour of the Sunni constituent and loosen the grip of Hezbollah on the state. This is why Hezbollah, supported by its Christians allies headed by General Michel Aoun, the president of the republic, rejects the notion of centralising the national identity at the expense of the sectarian identity of the regime. 

Irrespective of the reality of the blast, despite the indications suggesting that it was planned such as the attempts of the government and the president of the republic to contain it, the event is set to fuel further tension due to its economic and security fallout that have made the masses lose confidence in the domestic solutions; the fallout may even expand to the East Mediterranean and its resources.

Finally, it is worth noting that the voices of several Lebanese activists are growing louder via Western media outlets, such as BBC News, calling on Europe and America to intervene and rebuild the regime on new foundations after they have already brought it to its knees socially, politically and economically.

Copyright © LCIR 2020

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