With the Europeans divisive over relations with Russia over energy security and hence weak in their collective position, the cracks have enabled the America to humiliatingly remove them and even Ukraine from the negotiating table and concentrate on her policy to confront China.
It exposes the true reality of the failure and fantasy of European unity. Hence, whilst the Americans have played hard ball and not discounted military escalation, the Europeans have gravitated towards diplomatic alternatives.
Having kept the Europeans divided through the cunningness of Britain, which made a decision post World War II to piggy back on the power of the American’s to maintain her relevance in the world, America as a result has formed a leash over European security and made it subject to her own interests. The continual use of Russia as a scarecrow has furthered the American position of dominance over European security through NATO.
In the current situation concerning Ukraine, European security interests will take a back seat to those of America and Russia. The elephant in the room is China, which for the American’s is the dominant threat and concern in her foreign policy. It is the reason for her strategic pull out in Afghanistan and her enormous military pivot towards the South China sea. Consequently, it has no desire to get embroiled in a European conflict over Ukraine.
Instead, the threat of continued NATO expansion in the ex-Soviet space in which Ukraine being the historical buffer for Russia, presents the perfect weapons for the Americans to barter European security for guarantees that Russia will detach from China, and weaken her in the process.
For Putin and Russia, written guarantees that NATO will withdraw from the ex-Soviet space and block Ukraine from any future entry, leaving Russia dominant, maybe too good an opportunity to pass as circumstances in the international situation vis-a-vis US focus on the challenge of China and reluctance to get embroiled in military conflict have rarely been as favourable for Russia to act.
However, there is a danger to Russia of entrapment in a Ukranian quagmire, if it decides to fully invade. This will involve very little resources on the part of the Americans, Europeans and NATO to arm, support and fund a devastating resistance, threatening Russia’s economic, military and political capacity.
For the Americans it is a win-win situation, for a dominant Russia will threaten European security and enhance Russia’s scarecrow effect, leaving the Europeans dependant and in need of continued American security and that of NATO. Whilst removing a powerful ally of China at the same time.
Britain which follows a policy with America of embracing friendship with one arm officially, whilst looking to stab her with the other arm secretly in order to America’s international position, will undoubtedly look to stoke the fires between Russia, China and the American’s.
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