The recent “ceasefire” proposals that emerged from the discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia this week signal a broader U.S. strategy: to provide Putin with a credible way out of the Ukrainian conflict and resolve the crisis on Russian terms. This shift is aimed at pulling Russia away from China and allowing the U.S. to concentrate its resources solely on confronting China. The urgency for the U.S. is clear, especially considering Trump’s statements emphasizing the need to resolve the issue swiftly.
A deal between Trump and Putin has already been struck regarding the territory Russia will claim, the guarantees of Ukrainian military neutrality from NATO, and potential political control, including the removal of Zelenskyy and replacing him with a pro-Russian government. This would, in effect, undo Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, for this plan to come to fruition, it requires Zelensky’s capitulation and the cooperation of European leaders.
Two Sets of Talks: U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine
This dynamic is why there are two distinct sets of negotiations—one between the U.S. and Russia, and the other between the U.S. and Ukraine with the Europeans totally side-lined. The U.S.-Russia talks focus on the contours of a potential U.S.-Russian alliance, addressing what both sides need to secure their relationship and mutual objectives. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Ukrainian talks focus on implementing what has already been agreed between Putin and Trump to ensure Zelensky’s capitulation and Europe’s conformity.
This became more apparent after the public confrontation of Zelensky by Trump and Vice President Vance at the White House. Military aid was paused, along with intelligence support (including the suspension of SpaceX’s Starlink), effectively blinding the Ukrainian military. This strategic move gave Putin the green light to intensify attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, forcing Zelensky to shift his stance and agree to terms with the U.S. on the minerals deal, without asking for security guarantees.
Putin’s Momentum and Zelensky’s Response
With U.S. silence, Putin pushed to retake the Kursk region, further strengthening his position ahead of the U.S.-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia. Now fully aware of the deal between Trump and Putin, and the potential for his own removal from power (with reports of talks involving Ukrainian opposition leaders like Poroshenko), Zelensky turned to Europe for support. However, despite Europe’s outward expressions of solidarity, they have been unable to provide any meaningful assistance, demonstrating their weakness, division, and lack of preparedness to fill the vacuum left by a U.S. retreat.
The Ceasefire Proposal: A Trap for Zelensky
In this context, the “ceasefire” proposal becomes a trap for Zelensky. With Putin empowered and the U.S. withdrawing support, the proposal offers no real avenue for Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state. Instead, the Americans have allowed Putin to push for a permanent solution based on Ukraine’s complete capitulation, masked by empty rhetoric from Trump about “potential” measures against Putin to obscure Washington’s role in the deal.
Europe’s Humiliation and Washington’s Leverage
As for Europe, it is clear that Washington is using both carrots and sticks to enforce compliance with the U.S.-Russia deal. These include imposing tariffs, stoking internal divisions, and offering incentives like U.S. investment in the sanctioned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would allow cheap Russian gas back into Europe. The underlying message to European leaders is that their ability to influence the outcome of the conflict is effectively nullified, leaving them to grapple with the fallout of a new geopolitical reality.
The Shifting Focus of U.S. Foreign Policy
This shift in U.S. priorities—away from European security concerns and toward a sole focus on China—has been evident in Washington’s withdrawal from various global conflicts over the years, including Afghanistan and Iraq, and efforts to avoid getting entangled in Israel’s potential conflict with Iran. With Europe in disarray, the U.S. is shifting its geopolitical focus to countering China’s rise. This withdrawal from Europe allows Putin to strengthen his position and realize his vision of reclaiming former Russian territories like the Baltics, and pushing for the complete removal of NATO from Russia’s borders.
Europe’s Uncertain Future
The European landscape is set for profound change. With Washington’s retreat, Europe finds itself vulnerable and divided. Germany, in particular, may seize this moment to reassert itself on the global stage, freeing itself from the burden of WWII guilt and economic/military restrictions. Germany could become a dominant industrial and military power in Europe, leading to a realignment within the EU, especially as countries like France attempt to salvage their own visions of European unity under their leadership and Britain is being forcefully ejected by Washington from her leeching role and pretentious one sided “special relationship” to maintain her international significance on the back of America.
The facade of Western unity is rapidly crumbling, exposing the internal divisions within both NATO and the European Union. The departure of the U.S. from Europe could mark the beginning of a new and unpredictable era in European geopolitics.
Conclusion
The situation in Ukraine is more than just a regional conflict—it is part of a larger geopolitical shift that will redefine global alliances for decades to come. As the U.S. focuses more intently on China, Europe and Ukraine are left to navigate a complex and evolving world order where traditional alliances and power structures may no longer hold.
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