The Deal Between the Syrian Regime and the Kurdish SDF

The agreement announced yesterday between the Syrian regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate North East Syria into the Syrian state could not have been reached without the acquiescence of its patron, the United States, and its regional ally, Turkey. Turkey, which has served as the primary U.S. tool for organizing opposition groups in Syria, played a key role in the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Ahmad al-Sharaa. This development occurred after the U.S. withdrew its full support for Bashar al-Assad and greenlit Turkish and HTS advances toward Damascus.

The deal also reflects broader geopolitical shifts, including American directives for Iran to withdraw its backing for Hezbollah. This follows Iranian betrayal of Hezbollah in Lebanon, where intelligence provided to Israel led to the decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities. On Monday, the Syrian presidency published a joint statement outlining the agreement, which includes “the integration of all civilian and military institutions of Northeast Syria within the administration of the Syrian state, including border posts, the airport, and the oil and gas fields” (France 24, 11/03/25).

Recent violence targeting Alawites and remnants of Assad’s regime has  been sanctioned by the U.S. as part of an effort to erase evidence of its past involvement with the Syrian regime. Since the 1970s, the U.S. has played a significant role in shaping Syrian leadership, including supporting Hafez al-Assad’s military coup to undermine British influence. With Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa under Turkish control and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi directly managed by the U.S., the agreement aligns with Washington’s broader strategy. The deal explicitly commits the parties to “supporting the Syrian state in its fight against Assad’s remnants and all threats to (the country’s) security and unity” (France 24, 11/03/25).

This move reinforces U.S. control over Syria through Turkey while addressing Ankara’s longstanding concerns about Kurdish militant groups. The agreement effectively neutralizes the Kurdish threat in Syria, exerting pressure on other factions such as the YPG and PKK. In return, the U.S. appears to be assisting Turkey in resolving its Kurdish conflict. The timing of this deal coincides with statements from imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who on 27/02/25 urged the PKK to lay down its arms and dissolve itself (Kurdistan 24, 27/02/25). SDF leader Mazloum Abdi echoed this sentiment, calling for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to engage with Ocalan. Abdi emphasized that while Ocalan’s message applies only to the PKK and not to the SDF, peace in Turkey would remove any justification for further Turkish military action in Syria. Describing Ocalan’s statement as a “positive step,” Abdi expressed hope for de-escalation and the beginning of a peaceful political process (Kurdistan 24, 27/02/25).

The Turkish government has responded optimistically, with President Erdogan stating, “The efforts for a terror-free Turkey… have entered a new phase as of yesterday… We have the opportunity to take a historic step on the path to the goal of tearing down the wall of terror.”

However, European actors, who also exert influence over the PKK and YPG, are likely to challenge this U.S.-Turkey arrangement. The YPG has already distanced itself from Ocalan’s call, indicating that internal divisions within Kurdish factions may complicate the implementation of the deal.