Replacing Iran with Saudi Arabia : The New Political Developments in Lebanon

Major Political Developments Leading to Rapid Transformation in Lebanon

External Influence and the War in Gaza:
Shortly after the assassination of leaders of Iran’s party Hezbollah by Israel and before the ceasefire, calls emerged in Lebanon to elect a president and end the vacancy in the position. These calls were led by opponents of Iran’s party, such as Samir Geagea’s group, which openly rejected its support for Gaza in the war. This political shift was driven by the war’s impact, along with advice from European envoys who were touring Lebanon, alongside the U.S. envoy Hochstein’s efforts focused on the ceasefire. Hezbollah denounced these calls from the Lebanese opposition.
The End of the Presidential Vacancy:
After 12 failed sessions to elect a president in Lebanon over the past two years, the political forces agreed almost suddenly on Army Commander Joseph Aoun as the new president to end the vacancy. Iran’s party had initially backed Suleiman Franjieh, a candidate affiliated with the Iranian axis and Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, Franjieh withdrew his candidacy to pave the way for a compromise.
Voting Dynamics:
In the first presidential voting session, Joseph Aoun failed to secure the necessary two-thirds majority. However, in the second session, after a meeting with the parliamentary blocs, he received 99 votes. While this outcome indicated that Iran’s party and the Amal Movement’s support was instrumental, their shift from obstruction to compromise marked a retreat from their usual stance.
Nawaf Salam Appointed as Prime Minister:
On 13/1/2025, Nawaf Salam was appointed as Lebanon’s new prime minister. He was seen as a consensus candidate, positioned neither as a candidate of Iran’s party (which supported Najib Mikati) nor of the opposition bloc led by Samir Geagea (which proposed Fouad Makhzoumi). Thus, Salam’s appointment was a political compromise.
Previous Rejection of Nawaf Salam:
In 2019, after Saad Hariri’s resignation, Iran’s party had rejected Salam, labeling him a “U.S. candidate.” His nomination was rejected again after the Beirut port explosion in 2020, with the party pushing for Hassan Diab instead.
Tensions and Reactions from Hezbollah and Amal:
Iran’s party, along with Amal, expressed displeasure at Salam’s appointment. Al-Jazeera reported on 13/1/2025 that Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc did not nominate a candidate for prime minister, and its representative, Muhammad Hassan Raad, conveyed regret at the exclusion of his group. Hezbollah and Amal had originally supported the reappointment of Mikati as prime minister, in line with an agreement with the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Yazid bin Mohammed bin Fahd Al Farhan.

America’s Role and Influence in Lebanon

U.S. Satisfaction and Support:
The United States has expressed satisfaction with the new political developments in Lebanon. President Biden congratulated Joseph Aoun on his election, stating: “President Aoun will provide critical leadership as Lebanon and Israel fully implement the cessation of hostilities and as Lebanon recovers and rebuilds.” Similarly, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also congratulated Aoun, marking America’s strong support for the new political trajectory in Lebanon (CNN Arabic, 9/1/2025).
Lebanon Under U.S. Influence:
The new political changes reflect the ongoing influence of the United States in Lebanon. Joseph Aoun, appointed Army Commander in 2017 by Michel Aoun (who was backed by America), has long had ties to the U.S. Similarly, Nawaf Salam, a prominent figure in international law, has spent much of his career in American and French institutions, aligning with the U.S. framework.
Shifting Political Dynamics:
The U.S. is altering its approach in Lebanon. Previously reliant on Iran’s axis and its allies to maintain influence, America now seeks to strengthen its position through new political figures, shifting away from Iran’s influence in Lebanon. The U.S. continues to hold significant sway, with this political shift reflecting broader regional changes.
European Powers and Their Limited Influence:
While Europe, particularly France, has a presence in Lebanese politics, their influence is secondary to that of the United States. France initially opposed Joseph Aoun’s candidacy but was ultimately forced to accept him. European powers, while involved in the five-member committee overseeing Lebanese affairs, lack the clout to dictate Lebanon’s political future, leaving America in the driver’s seat.
France’s Stance:
French President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Aoun on his election, reflecting European satisfaction with the shift in Lebanon’s political direction. Macron emphasized that the new election “paves the way for reforms and the restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty and prosperity” (Al-Hurra, 10/1/2025), indicating Europe’s support for diminishing Iran’s influence in Lebanon.

The Changing Face of Lebanon Internally and Externally

Internal Changes:
Internally, Lebanon is likely to see increased pressure on the weapons of Iran’s party. The new president, Joseph Aoun, has expressed the need for Lebanon to monopolize weapons, marking a departure from the rhetoric of the previous administration. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in contrast to Hezbollah’s expectations, has refused to grant any ministerial portfolio exclusively to any party, including the Ministry of Finance, signaling a move toward a more inclusive governance approach (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 21/1/2025).
External Dynamics:
Iran’s influence over Lebanon appears to be waning. Although Hezbollah and its allies could have obstructed the political process, they chose not to. This shift reflects broader regional dynamics in which America, alongside Saudi Arabia, is reasserting influence, reducing Iran’s role in Lebanon’s political future.
Saudi Arabia’s Prominent Role:
President Joseph Aoun’s inaugural speech highlighted Lebanon’s shifting alliances, with Saudi Arabia set to become a key player in the country’s future. Aoun’s planned visit to Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip further underscores this pivot (Independent Arabia, 11/1/2025). Saudi Arabia’s involvement will likely extend to Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts, both politically and financially, as Iran’s role in the country diminishes.
Normalization with Israel:
With America’s influence growing and Saudi Arabia taking a larger role, Lebanon may be drawn into normalization with Israel, particularly as the U.S. seeks to expedite Saudi normalization with the Jewish state. This could be part of a broader geopolitical shift in the region, aligning with the U.S. and Israel’s strategic goals.