The recent large-scale operation by the al-Qassam Brigades has exposed vulnerabilities in Israeli deterrence when confronted by determined adversaries. Despite Israel’s military superiority and international backing, the operation demonstrated that its stability remains contingent on external support and the absence of a unified regional resistance strategy.
Despite being under blockade and facing resource constraints, the al-Qassam Brigades managed to deal a severe blow to Israeli security within hours, leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call it a “black day.” Politically, the operation was framed as a response to Israeli actions at al-Aqsa, with Mohammed al-Deif stating, “We have decided to put an end to the Israeli violations and attacks on al-Aqsa.” The inability of Arab and Muslim leaders to defend these sites has further fueled this resistance.
However, U.S. influence over the conflict, Israel’s internal divisions, and regional political dynamics often redirect military confrontations into diplomatic channels. While the U.S. considers Israel’s security a national priority, the uncompromising stance of the Israeli far-right complicates any sustainable resolution to the Palestinian issue and threatens regional stability.
This is evident in Israeli right-wing opposition to recognizing Palestinian claims in the West Bank and their expansion of settlements. The Biden administration’s push for Saudi-Israeli normalization has been accompanied by intensified settlement activity in al-Quds and the West Bank, aimed at cementing Israeli control before any potential concessions. Netanyahu has worked to finalize normalization without addressing Palestinian concerns, effectively sidelining the two-state solution. King Abdullah II of Jordan has expressed concerns that Saudi-Israeli normalization, detached from the Palestinian issue, could destabilize the Jordanian regime.
The ongoing conflict serves as both a military and political response to Israeli right-wing expansionism. Hamas’ actions aim to deter further settlement expansion and prevent Israeli extremists from altering the status quo at holy sites. Netanyahu, facing domestic political pressure, is leveraging the situation to consolidate power, shift blame to the military and security agencies, and suppress opposition protests. Declaring a state of war allows him to tighten control internally and present himself as a strong leader.
Despite Netanyahu’s efforts, the attack has undermined Israeli deterrence, posing challenges for the right-wing government. While a forceful Israeli retaliation against Gaza is expected, the broader implications of the operation extend to Israeli domestic politics. It could lead to dismissals within the security establishment and even government instability, aligning with U.S. interests in moderating Israeli policies. Biden, seeking electoral gains, aims to balance unwavering support for Israel with pressure on its leadership to align with broader U.S. strategic objectives.
The Pentagon has pledged full support for Israel, and Biden has reaffirmed U.S. backing. This aligns with long-standing U.S. and European military and ideological commitments to Israel. However, Washington remains critical of Netanyahu’s far-right government, particularly figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose removal aligns with U.S. strategic preferences.
While Biden must support Israel for political and security reasons—especially given Trump’s criticism of his administration’s Middle East policies—Washington also seeks to temper Israeli actions that risk regional instability. The outcome of this crisis will not only shape Israeli-Palestinian dynamics but also influence broader U.S. electoral and foreign policy calculations.
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