The Political Dimensions of the Hamas Attack on Israel

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a multi-front attack on Israel from Gaza, utilizing ground forces, paragliders, and sea-based incursions, alongside more than 2,000 rocket launches. This assault caught Israel by surprise, challenging its defense doctrine in the occupied areas. Additionally, Hezbollah fired rockets from southern Lebanon, though it limited its actions to the disputed Shebaa Farms region. As of writing, over 300 people in Israel have been killed, more than 1,000 wounded, and many soldiers and civilians taken hostage by Hamas fighters. In response, Israel launched a counteroffensive in Gaza, killing hundreds and wounding nearly 2,000. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “Israel was at war,” while the Biden administration reaffirmed its “ironclad” support for “Israel’s security” and condemned Hamas’s attack as “unprovoked” and “terrorist.”

However, it is essential to understand the political context behind this escalation, which is not solely about Palestinian liberation but also intersects with American domestic politics and Netanyahu’s opposition to the U.S.-backed two-state solution. The U.S. has long sought to contain instability in the Middle East by promoting diplomatic normalization between Israel and Arab states. Despite the success of the Abraham Accords—securing normalization with the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan, alongside existing peace agreements with Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt—these deals have been made with authoritarian governments rather than with populations that remain largely hostile toward Israel and the U.S.

Despite the U.S.’s commitment to Israel’s security, Washington has grown frustrated with Netanyahu’s rejection of the two-state solution. Even as normalization efforts advance, Netanyahu’s policies undermine any practical steps toward Palestinian statehood. The Biden administration sees a potential breakthrough in securing Saudi recognition of Israel, with additional Muslim-majority nations reportedly in the pipeline. Such a diplomatic victory would be politically significant for Biden and the Democrats, particularly in the context of upcoming U.S. elections.

Against this backdrop, Hamas’s attack and Hezbollah’s symbolic rocket strikes cannot be viewed in isolation. Hamas’s key backers—including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, all U.S. allies—along with Iran, which supports Hezbollah, likely played a role in shaping the timing and scale of these actions. Hezbollah’s decision to limit its involvement suggests a calculated move rather than an all-out regional war.

The political fallout from this attack will be substantial for Netanyahu. Domestically, the breach of Israel’s defenses raises serious questions about his leadership. Internationally, it could either strengthen hardline policies or push Israel toward diplomatic concessions under U.S. pressure.

Meanwhile, Muslim and Arab rulers across the region—bound by their alliances with the U.S.—have largely issued calls for “restraint” and “de-escalation” rather than offering direct military support to Gaza, which has been under blockade since 2007. The push for normalization, conducted through autocratic regimes without broad public support, will likely continue to fuel resentment rather than deliver lasting peace