Trump Shifts Focus from Ukraine to China, Weakens Europe

On February 12, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump stunned both Europe and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the call, Trump praised Russia while criticizing American involvement in the Ukraine war, leaving European leaders and Zelensky frustrated and alarmed. Tensions escalated when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a statement at a NATO meeting in Brussels, fueling rumors of a “dirty deal” between Trump and Putin—one that excluded Europe, NATO, and Ukraine from the conversation. This deal would allow Russia to retain its conquered territories, push NATO out of the conflict, and leave Europe to shoulder the financial burden of defending Ukraine and its own security.

The sense of betrayal among Europeans was most poignantly captured by a senior official in the British Ministry of Defense, who expressed their anger in a BBC Newsnight interview: “The bastards have gone over us” (12/02/25).

Trump later took to social media to comment on his call with Putin. He said: “I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar, and many other topics. We both talked about the strengths of our respective nations and the great benefits we’ll gain by working together in the future. But, as we agreed, the first priority is to end the millions of deaths taking place in the Russia-Ukraine war. President Putin even used my very strong campaign motto, ‘COMMON SENSE.’ We both believe very strongly in it, and we agreed to work closely together, including visiting each other’s nations.”

Trump emphasized that he and Putin would begin negotiations “immediately” to end the war in Ukraine. He also announced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador Steve Witkoff would lead the negotiations, which Trump expressed confidence would be “successful.”

This shift to withdraw American resources from the Ukraine conflict mirrors the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. Just as the U.S. faced costly consequences in Afghanistan—both financially and in terms of human lives—its withdrawal now allows for renewed focus on countering China.

Trump’s outreach to Putin, bypassing Europe, NATO, and Zelensky, signals a broader American strategy that prioritizes confronting China while leaving Europe weaker and divided. The ongoing threat from Russia, under this plan, serves to distract Europe and keep it preoccupied with its own security.

Hegseth’s statement in Brussels encapsulated this strategic shift. He declared:

“We are here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from focusing primarily on the security of Europe. The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland, and we must— and we are—focusing on securing our borders.”

“We also face a peer competitor in Communist China, with the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making necessary trade-offs to ensure deterrence does not fail. Deterrence cannot fail—for all of our sakes” (U.S. Department of Defense, 12/02/25).

Hegseth’s words, coupled with Trump’s sidelining of Europe and Zelensky, hint at a significant agreement between Trump and Putin. This deal would grant Putin several key objectives, including acknowledging that Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders are “an unrealistic objective” and that Ukraine’s NATO membership is “not a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”

On the removal of NATO and American troops from Ukraine, Hegseth clarified that any security guarantees would involve European and non-European troops, but not under NATO’s Article 5, which ensures collective defense. According to Hegseth:

“Any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine, they should do so as part of a non-NATO mission and not be covered under Article 5. There must also be robust international oversight of the line of contact. To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.”

Feeling marginalized, European leaders responded with a joint statement from six governments, including France, the UK, and Germany, expressing their desire to be part of any negotiations: “We look forward to discussing the way ahead with our American allies… Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations” (CNN, 13/02/25).

Trump’s phone call with Putin and Hegseth’s statement came just ahead of a European security summit in Munich. Without NATO and American support, Europe lacks the financial, structural, and military resources to continue backing Ukraine or defend itself against Russia. The concept of a unified European defense remains distant, and developing it would take years, if not decades. This concern was voiced by Éric Trappier, head of French defense giant Dassault, who said last year: “Europe believes all of a sudden that working on defense is a good thing… Between that realization and the reality of building a European defense industry, it’s going to take many years and even decades.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed this sentiment, stating: “We are not producing enough, and this is a collective problem… Russia produces in three months what the entire alliance produces in a year” (CNN, 13/02/25).

Trump’s maneuvering against Europe is also evidenced by the involvement of Elon Musk. Musk, known for his support of far-right movements in Europe, especially in Germany, is seen as part of a broader effort to revive German militarism and further divide European states. While Germany has publicly pushed back against Trump’s negotiations with Putin, it may secretly welcome an end to the war, given the strain caused by energy sanctions on Russia, from which Germany is heavily reliant. Musk’s support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and pro-Russian groups will likely benefit from this shift.

In response, Europe now faces a crossroads. The only way to survive the increasing pressure from the U.S. may be for Europe to push back collectively. However, with tariffs, political interference, and now the Russian security dilemma, the U.S. holds the upper hand and seems poised to exploit Europe’s vulnerabilities.