Washington’s Motives Behind Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Capability

On 18/12/2024, the US announced that it was applying sanctions on four establishments in Pakistan in relation to the procurement of components for furthering the development of long range ballistic missile technology. According to the US State Department;

“In light of the continuing proliferation threat of Pakistan’s long-range missile development, the United States is designating four entities for sanctions pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery” (18/12/2024)

The entities named were The National Development Complex (NDC) as the main military establishment with three others charged with procuring for the NDC material for ballistic missile production.

The sanctions announcement was followed up by comments on 19/12/2024 by US Deputy Security advisor John Finer at the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), wherein he termed Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile development as enabling Pakistan to strike targets beyond South Asia and subsequently constituting an “emerging threat” to the United States itself. According to Finer;

“Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States…Pakistan has developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors”. If those trends continue, Finer said, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.” (CEIP 19/12/2024).

The sanctions and comments which came as a surprise to many, are the seventh round in a series of actions started under the Obama administration the last of which was in April 2024 targeting Chinese and Belarussian firms for the supply of missile technology to Pakistan. However, as the Oman Times noted at the time “Pakistan’s missile programme has reached a stage where sanctions don’t really matter” (24/9/24). With the Pakistani diplomatic establishment perplexed by the arbitrary and confusing position by Washington, with a feeling of aggrievement with regards to the double standards applied to other countries such as India, it is clear that they have not understood the political nature and intention of Washington’s actions. For if Pakistan posed such a threat then the actions would be wider and more severe in nature.

This political confusion and bewilderment is clearly observable from Pakistan’s response. In April 2024, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry had said that the sanctions had been imposed “without any evidence whatsoever” of foreign companies supplying its ballistic missiles programme. “We reject the political use of export controls,” adding that some countries appear to enjoy exemptions from “non-proliferation” controls.  

On this occasion Pakistan’s foreign office reiterated the confusion and the frustration at the duplicity of the Americans developing an “asymmetry” with India. According to the Foreign office statement on this occasion, US sanctions;

“…defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries…Such policies have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond…Similar listings of commercial entities in the past were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever…While claiming strict adherence to non-proliferation norms, licensing requirement for advanced military technology to other countries have been waived off in the past,” (Dawn 19/12/24)

In order to understand Washington’s behaviour and the sanction issue in particular, they have to be analysed and connected within the wider regional political context, as the reality of US-Pakistan relations, which is a client relationship on the part of Pakistan does not concord with any notion of Pakistan emerging as a threat to the US.

Consequently, the sanctions and political statements have less to do with the military dimensions of Pakistan’s ballistic missile development, which the US would be fully aware of, but part of a package of instruments on the part of Washington to achieve certain political objectives the following of which need to be noted;

1. The US sanctions relate primarily to Chinese military assistance and form part of the US strategic and military shift which occurred under the Obama regime towards countering China, especially its military capability. In this regard Pakistan has an established role for furthering US policy since the Cold War, when under the Nixon administration its cordial relationship with China was successfully used to steer China away from the Soviet Union and rupture the Communist camp. Post Cold War and after the collapse of Communism, with China’s rise, Pakistan was again called upon by Washington to navigate China away from focussing on the military dimension by pushing and immersing her into grand economic projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and CPEC.

However, the policy having failed to deter China’s military advancement and capability, and consequently, the US has started to focus on targeting China’s economic supply lines in general, including her military logistics and supply chains. This situation has been heightened also due to Washington’s policy in attempting to detach China’s relationship with Russia (which forms the primary challenge to US global hegemony), through accusations of Chinese assistance to the Russian military establishment in relation to Ukraine. As a result, a policy of carrots and sticks has been deployed by Washington to rupture China’s relationship with Russia.

For this reason, sanctions on Pakistan’s missile technology which primarily hails from China and North Korea, has been used as a conduit to send a message to China that the fallout from Pakistan could more widely affect its military supply chain.

Whilst at the same time, it has been used as political flare to assist the Pakistani military establishment to promote itself as independence from Washington in its weapons procurement, the aim of which is to repair the credibility of the military leadership after the worst ever crisis in its reputation and credibility domestically, resulting from the direct political engineering and replacement of the popular Imran Khan as leader.

2. The sanctions are also a political act aimed at India, which forms a key part of the US planning towards China. They are intended both as a sword as well as bait to further US military entrenchment with India. There is a political message to India in highlighting the Chinese link and the long range capability of Pakistan’s long range missile, as a warning to India to accelerate her actions against China, by using the threat capability of her arch enemy Pakistan as a motivator, since Washington has been frustrated with the slow pace and reluctance of India in more forcefully challenging China.

Whilst at the same time demonstrating to India, its commitment and bias towards her in helping to develop her asymmetric economic and military capability over Pakistan, with the Pakistani diplomatic establishment endorsing this fear when the Pakistani Foreign Office stated with respect to the current sanctions, that it”…defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries… (Dawn 19/12/24)

Hence, the political aim with regards to sanctions is to use them as bait to push India further into her arms with the aim of increasing defence relations and contracts by highlighting Chinese military assistance to Pakistan, heightening its missile capabilities, with the aim of accelerating India’s movement towards realising Washington’s goals towards China in the region. In this regard, Pakistan’s critical but subservient role is as bait for both China and India in Washington’s larger plan.